Trend Mineral-rich and processing countries gaining geopolitical leverage

Summary

In the short term, the report expects that countries holding large reserves and the capacity to process and refine critical minerals could gain more geopolitical influence through control of supply. It states that the places where many critical minerals are mined and processed are fewer and more clustered than for oil or natural gas. Because these minerals are often by-products and new production takes a long time to develop, supply does not expand easily when demand surges. This leads to over-reliance on certain countries and makes already volatile supply chains less stable. The UK defence sector also depends on critical minerals to deploy advanced capability, so sustained disruption could restrict its freedom of action. In its analysis of state threats, the report likewise expects rivalry over critical minerals could heighten geopolitical tension.