Signal Full NDC implementation still implies peak warming around 2.6 degrees or more

Summary

The report cites the gap between climate goals and actual national pledges as a vulnerability that exposes the limits of international institutions. A 2024 UNEP report found that even full delivery of the Nationally Determined Contributions made by countries could leave peak warming at 2.6～3.1 degrees Celsius. An optimistic scenario that adds every country's most stringent net zero pledge to the NDCs still points to 1.8～2.39 degrees. Both ranges sit well above the 1.5 degree threshold needed to avoid the worst climate impacts. The report regards mobilising concerted action on climate change as a central task for international institutions. It also warns that climate mitigation could be underfunded if money shifts toward humanitarian crises.