Trend A Turnberry trade system beyond the WTO reshapes Northeast Asian production networks

Summary

With tariff negotiations between the US and its major partners wrapping up, the report sees a Turnberry system emerging that goes beyond the WTO framework. The new trade order focuses on rebalancing the global industrial and trade order so that American interests and security are guaranteed. This shift is expected to act as a catalyst for a major reorganisation of global production networks now centred on Northeast Asia. High US tariffs are expected to pull more investment toward the United States. For Korea, concerns are high about foreign exchange market stability, a domestic investment vacuum and a weakening manufacturing ecosystem. The report adds that pressure from combined US trade and industrial policy could drain investment capacity away from domestic strategic industries.