Issue Shrinking military manpower and the restructuring of national defence

Summary

Korea's pool of men eligible for conscription is shrinking sharply, and the survey argues that falling manpower requires a structural transition of the entire defence system rather than a recruitment fix. Although Defence Reform 2.0 already cut standing forces to about 500,000, simulations by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses show troop numbers continuing to fall under the current 18-month army service. On those trends officers would outnumber enlisted soldiers, and applications for officer and non-commissioned officer tracks have also dropped steeply, deepening the recruitment crisis. An international regression across major economies suggests that an appropriate standing force for Korea would be well below current levels, pointing to further reductions. Maintaining capability will require converting to AI- and robot-based combat power, expanding professional personnel and reforming the service system, in line with a global shift toward cyber, space and other advanced forces.