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Latest observation
2026-10-08
Public objects
4434
Build time
2026-10-08 19:44 KST
The Futures

Signal Korea's conscription pool falls from about 330,000 to 250,000 and is projected to halve by 2065

Summary

The military-manpower overview reports that the number of men due for enlistment fell from about 330,000 in 2020 to about 250,000 in 2023. It is projected to drop to around 150,000 by 2065, less than half the 2020 level. A Korea Institute for Defense Analyses simulation finds that, with 18-month army service unchanged, troop strength would fall from 465,000 in 2025 to 396,000 in 2038, leaving 200,000 officers and non-commissioned officers against 196,000 enlisted soldiers. Applications for reserve officer and academy-graduate officer tracks fell 46.5 percent and for non-commissioned officers 32.9 percent between 2017 and 2022. The survey reads these trends as a crisis across the whole of military recruitment.

Classification

Secondary topicsDemographics & Migration
Region menusEast Asia Korea
Occurrencescope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)
Published2025-12-31
Last updated2026-10-01 17:42 KST

Evidence 3

Part of trends 0

No objects.

Directly linked issues 1

Relation types: direct_urgent

Public id: fm-72931275a28e