Signal Korea's conscription pool falls from about 330,000 to 250,000 and is projected to halve by 2065
Summary
The military-manpower overview reports that the number of men due for enlistment fell from about 330,000 in 2020 to about 250,000 in 2023. It is projected to drop to around 150,000 by 2065, less than half the 2020 level. A Korea Institute for Defense Analyses simulation finds that, with 18-month army service unchanged, troop strength would fall from 465,000 in 2025 to 396,000 in 2038, leaving 200,000 officers and non-commissioned officers against 196,000 enlisted soldiers. Applications for reserve officer and academy-graduate officer tracks fell 46.5 percent and for non-commissioned officers 32.9 percent between 2017 and 2022. The survey reads these trends as a crisis across the whole of military recruitment.
Classification
Evidence 3
- 제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) [별책] 이슈 상세개요서 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=350;section=Ⅲ. 인구구조 변화와 축소 사회로 전환 / 31. 병역 자원의 축소 (1) 개요 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
- 제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) [별책] 이슈 상세개요서 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=350;section=Ⅲ. 인구구조 변화와 축소 사회로 전환 / 31. 병역 자원의 축소 (1) 개요 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
- 제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) [별책] 이슈 상세개요서 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=350;section=Ⅲ. 인구구조 변화와 축소 사회로 전환 / 31. 병역 자원의 축소 (1) 개요 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
Part of trends 0
No objects.
Directly linked issues 1
- IssueShrinking military manpower and the restructuring of national defence0 trends · 1 signals
Relation types: direct_urgent
Public id: fm-72931275a28e
