Signal Turkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground

Summary

This signal contrasts middle powers that are gaining influence with those that may be losing it. With established powers turning more isolationist, the report sees more room for small and middle powers to assert independence and leadership in a multipolar order. It names Turkey for its growing influence in defence, energy, humanitarian aid and mediation. South Africa is cited for its role in advancing regional integration in Africa. By comparison, Australia and New Zealand, which thrived under the Western rules-based order, may be losing influence. The signal shows that multipolarity creates both winners and relative losers among middle powers.