Trend Story 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence
Summary
The third story of change makes the inputs of frontier technology into sources of geopolitical power. Critical minerals, manufacturing capability, capital and talent now function the way gold and oil once did, and as the system becomes more multipolar the states that hold them, including small and middle powers, gain room to assert independence and leadership they did not have before.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=9;section=3 Sources of strength 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=9;section=3 Sources of strength 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 6
- SignalCanada's skilled immigration policy is named beside Estonia, Singapore and other talent programmes
- SignalFive named mineral holders have explored OPEC style supply management
- SignalGulf sovereign wealth funds are cited with Abu Dhabi's Falcon 40B as the named case
- SignalReport states 36 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS
- SignalSemiconductors, biotech, clean energy and pharmaceuticals are named as strategic manufacturing
- SignalTurkey and South Africa are named as rising while Australia and New Zealand are said to be losing ground
Part of issues 5
- IssuePolicy area 1: international relations must absorb new actors, new arenas and new entities4 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePolicy area 3: states balance strategic interest, core values and competitiveness at once3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueWatch point: small and middle powers with room to manoeuvre form more flexible alignments1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: states investing in diversity and welfare cultivate talent and gain influence1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: swings in resource value, including from manipulation, move power unpredictably1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-bb9c05b89c67