Trend Story 3: smaller states holding strategic resources gain outsized influence

Summary

The third story of change in the report holds that selected smaller states with access to strategic natural and human resources are gaining outsized influence. The resources needed for cutting-edge technology, namely critical minerals, manufacturing capability, capital and talent, are becoming new sources of geopolitical power. Critical minerals in particular are growing in strategic weight much as gold and oil once did. As the world becomes more multipolar and established powers turn more isolationist, small and middle powers find more room to assert independence and leadership. Emerging alliances and the expansion of existing groupings may give them additional influence. The report adds that this power may shift in unexpected ways if resource values fluctuate.