Signal US pressure for 5 percent defence spending and doubts over its commitment to Europe

Summary

At the 2014 Wales summit NATO members agreed that allies below 2 percent of GDP would move toward that level within a decade, but the second Trump administration, in office since January 2025, demanded spending of 5 percent. In March 2025 the president suggested that the United States might not defend allies that do not pay enough, and in June, before the Hague summit, he said commitment to Article 5 collective defence depended on its definition. The Hague declaration nonetheless reaffirmed Article 5, so the formal US commitment did not change. Bergmann (2025) nevertheless judges that Europe can no longer take the US security guarantee for granted. The Pentagon's force posture review under way at the time also raised the possibility of substantial troop cuts in Europe and a shift of some capabilities to the Indo-Pacific.