Signal Early warning 4: Qualitative R&D productivity

Summary

The fourth early-warning indicator looks beyond the volume of R&D spending to outcomes such as patents, the technology trade balance and the commercialisation success rate. Korea's gross R&D spending equalled 4.96% of GDP in 2023, second in the world after Israel. Yet the commercialisation rate of national R&D is put at around 20%, far below the 70.7% reported for the UK and 69.3% for the US. The report acknowledges that Korean figures vary between sources, appearing as 20% or 30.6% depending on definitions and measurement. It concludes that the gap reflects structural inefficiency in the innovation system rather than insufficient input, and classifies the indicator as signalling dependence.