Issue Early-warning system and present path

Summary

To detect early which of the four scenarios is materialising, KDI proposes a set of six indicators that can be monitored continuously, three on each uncertainty axis. The internal axis tracks political and institutional trust, the passage rate of core reform bills and the functioning of social dialogue bodies. The external axis tracks the qualitative productivity of R&D, global market shares in strategic technologies and the vitality of the deep-tech ecosystem. Taken together, current readings send warnings on both axes: gridlock internally and dependence externally, with only strategic-technology share neutral. The report concludes that present signals point most strongly toward the Worn Anchor path, but stresses that the diagnosis is a starting point for action, not a fixed destiny.