Trend Story 4: efficiency is redefined around reliability and political alignment

Summary

The fourth story of change in the report holds that geopolitics and technology are reforging supply chains around reliability and security. After the Cold War it was widely hoped that global trade and China's economic integration would secure prosperity and stability. The COVID-19 pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine and climate-related disruptions then exposed the weaknesses of long chains built on the lowest-cost suppliers. Dependence on single sources turned supply chains into tools of coercion in diplomatic disputes, while outsourcing parts of advanced technologies raised espionage risks. As a result, efficiency has been redefined to prize resilience, security and partnerships with dependable, politically aligned actors. Rich countries, emerging powers and multinationals are seeking to derisk through trusted networks, control of critical technologies and greater self-sufficiency.