Issue Watch point: trade shifts stabilize or destabilize geopolitics depending on connectedness

Summary

This issue is the second watch point in the report's supply chain story, and it leaves the direction open. Shifts in global trade patterns could have a stabilising effect on geopolitics. That would happen if they produced a more robust and interconnected world economy. Alternatively, they could be destabilising if they cut some states off from economically and militarily important technologies. The outcome depends on whether reconfiguration broadens or narrows access. The watch point shows that the same trade shifts could either calm or inflame international tensions.