Signal Demand-side weakness: falling consumption propensity, export dependence on chips and record-low spending growth

Summary

On the demand side the plan reports that the average propensity to consume has fallen in every age group. Between 2013 and 2023 it dropped from 58.4 to 57.4 percent for those aged 29 or younger, from 57.6 to 52.9 percent for people in their thirties, from 65.2 to 58.4 percent in their forties, from 57.1 to 53.8 percent in their fifties and from 61.3 to 51.1 percent for those aged 60 or older. Facility investment is said to have declined for two consecutive years, and exports outside semiconductors have stagnated. With 2010 as 100, semiconductor exports rose from 113 to 280 between 2013 and 2024, while all other exports moved only from 121 to 130. Growth in total government expenditure in the main budget slowed from 5.1 percent in 2023 to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025, which the plan calls the lowest ever.