Signal Bank of Korea assumes US tariffs on Korean goods stay high, with new overcapacity and chip duties ahead

Summary

According to the outlook's premises, the United States has been levying replacement tariffs framed around forced labour since its temporary tariffs expired. The Bank of Korea further assumes that additional tariffs linked to overcapacity will be imposed during the fourth quarter of 2026. A 15 percent tariff on semiconductors is assumed to start in the first quarter of 2027. Current rates on Korean goods, such as 12.5 percent under the forced-labour measure, 15 percent on autos and 50 percent on steel, are expected to hold until the new duties return the burden to where it stood before the court ruling that invalidated reciprocal tariffs. Heavier US trade pressure and tariff burdens also appear separately in the report's list of downside risks to growth.