Signal North Korea advances nuclear and missile capabilities and a preemptive-use doctrine

Summary

Since its first successful nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has threatened Korea, Japan and other regional states with nuclear weapons for some twenty years while building missiles able to reach the US mainland. Intercontinental ballistic missiles and hard-to-detect long-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles are described as major potential threats that could alter the military balance between Pyongyang and Washington. After the failed Hanoi summit with the United States in February 2019, North Korea changed its basic nuclear strategy. It now presents a total-war posture that permits preemptive nuclear strikes while consistently building forces in preparation for future negotiations with Washington. Because the buildup affects Japan as well as Korea, it has become a shared security concern of the two countries.