Trend The Sahel's G-Zero: jihadist expansion into coastal West Africa

Summary

Eurasia Group describes the Sahel as the most active jihadist battleground in the world, with extremist violence across West Africa rising sharply over three years. Weak leadership, poor governance, repeated military takeovers and the pullback of foreign counterterrorism help have left a vacuum. JNIM, an Al Qaeda-affiliated coalition, controls large parts of northern and central Mali and is targeting trade routes to isolate Bamako. In 2026 it is expected to consolidate in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and build footholds in the borderlands of Togo, Benin and Nigeria. The report sees a worsening crisis rather than imminent collapse, with coastal states forced to divert budgets to defence.