Signal Benin attack fatalities up nearly 70% as JNIM reaches Nigeria

Summary

Eurasia Group identifies Benin as the country most exposed to the southward spread of jihadist violence from the Sahel. Attacks there reached record levels in 2025, and deaths rose by almost 70% compared with 2024. JNIM, the Al Qaeda-affiliated coalition, staged its first attack inside Nigeria in October 2025 and is expected to try to establish footholds in the northwest. Togo is in a comparable position, while Cote d'Ivoire has contained the threat and Ghana and Senegal have not been attacked. The report expects border regions to face higher risk than coastal cities and coastal states to raise defence spending.