Signal Statistics Korea medium projection used for 2050: 47.11 million people, 40.1 percent aged 65 or over

Summary

To reflect population decline, which scored high on impact but low on uncertainty and so was not chosen as a driver, the scenarios use Statistics Korea's 2024 population projections. Under the medium projection, Korea's total population falls from 51.31 million in 2030 to 47.11 million in 2050. The working-age population aged 15 to 64 shrinks from 34.17 million, or 66.6 percent, in 2030 to 24.45 million, or 51.9 percent, in 2050. People aged 65 and over reach 18.91 million, 40.1 percent of the population, by 2050, and the median age approaches about 60. The two most optimistic scenarios keep these figures, while the darker storylines assume far smaller populations after climate disasters and social collapse.