Issue Scenario D 'Adaptive Prosperity': AI harmony with climate adaptation in a bloc-divided order

Summary

Scenario D combines human-AI harmony, adaptation to the climate crisis and reordering amid chaos, with an inconsistency score of one. It is described as a realistic middle path in which AI succeeds, efforts to halt climate change fail so society relies on adaptation, and the new cold war persists with limited cooperation. In this storyline AI and robots cover 70 percent of the labour shortage, digital health care extends healthy life expectancy to 85, and renewables rise to a 50 percent share. Korea keeps strategic ambiguity, working with both camps and gaining bargaining power through semiconductors and batteries. Experts rated it the most plausible at 4.04 and gave it a preference of 3.75, seeing it as the most suitable baseline for policy.

Classification

Main topicAI & Computing

Secondary topicsClimate Change & Adaptation Geopolitics & Security

Region menusEast Asia Korea

Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR

Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)

Published2025-12-31

Last updated2026-10-01 17:42 KST

Evidence 8

제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=171;section=제4장 제3절 6. 미래 시나리오 가능성·선호도 평가 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=171;section=제4장 제3절 5. (4) 시나리오 D 적응형 번영 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=169;section=제4장 제3절 5. (4) 시나리오 D 적응형 번영 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=169;section=제4장 제3절 5. (4) 시나리오 D 적응형 번영 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=152;section=제4장 제3절 3. 시나리오 조합 분석 및 선정 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=167;section=제4장 제3절 5. (4) 시나리오 D 적응형 번영 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=170;section=제4장 제3절 5. (4) 시나리오 D 적응형 번영 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30
제7회 과학기술예측조사 연구(1차년도) 한국과학기술기획평가원(KISTEP) page=172;section=제4장 제3절 6. 미래 시나리오 가능성·선호도 평가 2025-12-31 accessed 2026-09-30

Constituent trends 3

TrendClimate driver: three variant paths from halted warming to failed survival0 signals
TrendGeopolitics driver: three variant paths from a second globalisation to a wild era0 signals
TrendSuperintelligence driver: four variant paths of AI pace and social acceptance0 signals

Directly linked signals 2

Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent

Public id: fm-e45cde8fcbd4