Issue Denuclearisation uncertainty and preventing a new Cold War bloc in Northeast Asia

Summary

With North Korea's nuclear weapons entering an advanced stage, Pyongyang now has little incentive to trade denuclearisation for better relations with Washington. As the US keeps making remarks that effectively acknowledge the North's nuclear status, it is unclear whether peninsula denuclearisation can remain the goal of US-North Korea talks. China will maintain its two Koreas stance and its three principles of denuclearisation, peace and stability, and resolution through dialogue, favouring a political solution to the nuclear issue. The report warns that stronger US-Japan-Korea cooperation facing a tighter North Korea-China-Russia alignment risks locking in a new Cold War, and that Korea must also prepare for North Korea joining more international bodies. It recommends pursuing the END initiative of exchange, normalisation and denuclearisation, and observes that diverging North Korean and Chinese interests give Korea some value to Beijing as leverage over Pyongyang.