Trend Megatrend 7: shift of power towards the East and the South
Summary
The seventh megatrend in the Megatrends 2040 report describes a continuing shift of global economic power away from the established advanced economies of North America, Western Europe and Japan. The beneficiaries are the emerging economies of the East and the South. The report attributes Asia's rise to modernization reforms, advances in science and technology, rapid growth in population and the middle class, and rich natural resources, which give Asian states the ability to help shape the future. Projections show China becoming the largest economy at market rates before 2030 and the influence of the G7 moving toward the E7 by 2050. The report expects a multipolar world with more regional powers, new geostrategic policies and emerging financial systems such as the New Development Bank.
Classification
Evidence 2
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=15;section=Megatrend 7 Shift of Power towards the East and the South 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
- Megatrends 2040: Volatility, Uncertainty, Resourcefulness Hellenic Republic, Presidency of the Government — Working Group on Strategic Foresight and Futures Research (표지·판권면 로고로만 확인) page=15;section=Megatrend 7 Shift of Power towards the East and the South 2022-07 (문헌 본문에 발행일 표기 없음 — PDF 메타데이터 생성일 2022-07-25 기준) accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 8
- SignalChina and India put at 35% of world population and 25% of world GDP
- SignalFour declared nuclear states placed in Asia
- SignalG7 economic and political influence projected to shift to E7 by 2050
- SignalMiddle class put at about 5 billion by 2030 with two thirds in Asia Pacific
- SignalPwC cited: China already largest in PPP terms and largest at market rates before 2030
- SignalReport's military rankings for China, India and Pakistan
- SignalSix Asian states listed as having put satellites in orbit
- SignalVietnam projected as fastest growing economy and 20th by GDP in 2050
Part of issues 4
- IssueA more competitive geopolitical environment framed around the China challenge1 trends · 1 signals
- IssueA new phase of globalisation that also produces unexpected instability1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueKey point: new geostrategic policies and a multipolar world1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueNew free trade zones and rising protectionism at the same time1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-61b1d7f92a19
