Issue Scarce battery metals fuelling conflict and corruption in producer countries

Summary

The report suggests that global decarbonisation efforts could make it steadily harder to meet demand for lithium, cobalt and other rare earth metals. To secure access, it expects states may turn to private military companies, investment, bribes and political interference. The outcome could be more conflict, corruption and crime in mineral-rich countries. In the short term too, it sees prices for clean energy minerals rising and resource competition giving organised crime openings in illegal mining and counterfeiting. The cross-cutting analysis finds that competition for critical minerals affects 14 other risks and vulnerabilities while being affected by only two chronic risks, so it calls for dedicated measures.