Trend Global supply chains strained and trade relations fragmenting
Summary
The UK depends on a complex global network of companies and people to produce and deliver goods and services, including critical items needed for the economy and essential public services such as health. Globalisation has tied economies closely together, giving the UK access to cheaper goods and services. The report nevertheless regards global supply chains as complex, opaque and fragile systems. New technologies, shifting trade relationships, rising protectionism and market-distorting practices are putting them under heavy strain, while geopolitical tension is fragmenting trade relations. Climate change is disrupting trade routes through more severe weather, and the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's cut to energy supplies showed how widely supply shocks can spread.
Classification
Evidence 1
- HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) Chronic Risks Analysis HM Government - Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science (Foresight) no link — bibliographic entry p. 114 2025 accessed 2026-09-29
Observed signals 5
- SignalAbout a third of England's generic medicines made in India
- SignalCritical Imports and Supply Chains Strategy published January 2024
- SignalEnergy price cap rose from 1,216 to 4,059 pounds; EPG limited bills to 2,500
- SignalNickel price jump of 270% led the LME to suspend trading
- SignalTrade rose from 43% of UK GDP in 1970 to 70% in 2022
Part of issues 2
- IssueArctic routes opening while other trade routes become less viable1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueScarce battery metals fuelling conflict and corruption in producer countries1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-8cfac09d6549
