Signal KMA SSP projections anchor Korea's 2050 climate: 13.5 to 14.6 degrees Celsius average temperature

Summary

For climate assumptions, the scenarios apply the four SSP pathways published by the Korea Meteorological Administration in 2022. Under the low-emission SSP1-2.6 pathway used for the most optimistic scenario, Korea's average temperature for 2046 to 2050 is projected at 13.5 degrees Celsius, with about 21.3 heatwave days and 8.4 cold-wave days a year. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 pathway used for the darker scenarios, Korea's average temperature in 2050 reaches 14.6 degrees Celsius, 1.6 degrees above today. Globally, even the optimistic storyline assumes warming of 1.5 degrees over pre-industrial levels during the 2030s. These official projections anchor the climate side of the scenarios, while the storylines then diverge on whether warming is halted, adapted to or left unchecked.