Trend Megatrend 1: Demographic system transition

Summary

KDI's long-range strategy report argues that Korea's population problem cannot be reduced to low fertility alone. It identifies three simultaneous shocks: a possibly irreversible weakening of reproduction, a shift from postponing births to forgoing them altogether, and super-ageing combined with population decline. Korea moved from an aged to a super-aged society in just seven years, compared with 115 years for France and 36 for Japan, leaving little time for institutions to adapt. Spending of 380 trillion won on fertility measures between 2006 and 2023 failed to reverse the trend, which the report attributes to a flawed diagnosis rather than insufficient scale. It therefore calls for a shift from trying to restore fertility to designing a society that functions with a shrinking population.