Signal Korean fertility remains far below replacement despite a brief rebound

Summary

The KDI report records that Korea's total fertility rate fell to a world-low 0.72 in 2023, then rose to 0.75 in 2024, the first increase in nine years. By the third quarter of 2025 the quarterly rate had reached 0.85. The report attributes the rebound to a temporary release of marriages delayed by COVID-19 and to more weddings since 2022, not to a reversal of the structural trend. Even the 2024 figure is only 36% of the replacement level of 2.1 and about half the OECD average of 1.43. On current trends the population could shrink to 36.22 million by 2072.