Issue Chinese A2/AD strategy and possible status quo changes across East Asian flashpoints

Summary

So far Korea and Japan, backed by overwhelming US military power, have held back Chinese attempts to change the regional status quo by force. The report expects China to pursue anti-access and area-denial strategies that shrink US military influence in the region. China is also judged likely to try to shift the military status quo in its favor across the region's hot spots, namely Taiwan, the East China Sea, the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea. Washington believes Beijing seeks military unification with Taiwan, and concern about a Taiwan contingency is rising around 2027, when Xi Jinping's fourth term would begin. How Korea and Japan respond to China's growing military power is therefore described as a very important variable for both countries.