Issue Korea: AI investment is both the engine of resilience and a source of structural vulnerability

Summary

The report describes AI investment as the core driver of Korea's current macroeconomic resilience and, at the same time, a potential source of structural vulnerability. AI, semiconductor and data centre investment led by the United States and China is supporting global growth momentum, and demand is expected to stay solid in the parts and materials fields where Korea holds key positions. However, the contribution of AI-related investment to GDP is projected to peak in 2025 and slow gradually from 2026. Judging when the global AI demand cycle on which Korea depends will turn therefore becomes important. If an AI slowdown coincides with global energy and trade shocks, the sectors now lifting aggregates and those already under pressure could be hit at the same time.