Trend Superintelligence driver: four variant paths of AI pace and social acceptance

Summary

For the superintelligence driver, KISTEP set a two-by-two frame of technology pace and social acceptance, each moving in a positive or negative direction. In the human-AI harmony path, smooth technical progress is matched by expanding institutional and social readiness, so AI is actively adopted across Korean society. In the technology domination path, AI leaps ahead to a technological singularity but spreads before institutions are ready, amid distrust and fear, leaving prolonged social confusion. In the delayed innovation path, high expectations run into slow progress toward AGI and power supply limits, so AI breakthroughs come after 2040 and broad diffusion around 2050. In the AI stagnation path, a lack of innovation after large language models and weak safety and reliability bring a long AI winter in which use barely moves beyond today's level.