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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Trend Capital-region concentration hardens into a question of regional survival

Summary

More than half of Korea's population now lives in the capital region, which covers only about 11.8 percent of the national territory. The report finds that this single-pole concentration was not eased by the first relocation and has instead deepened, with non-capital metropolitan cities losing vitality as young people leave for the capital. Many non-capital local governments are already classified as at risk of population extinction. Accelerating low fertility and ageing, combined with youth concentration in the capital, have changed the nature of regional imbalance. What used to be a debate about sharing the gains of growth has become a question of whether non-capital communities can survive at all. Projections that the capital share will keep rising toward 2045 suggest the pressure will intensify further.

Classification

Region menusEast Asia Korea
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:KR
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-06
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Observed signals 2

Part of issues 3

Relation types: constitutes · supports

Public id: fm-84afa11d1703