Issue Scenario: Gilded Cage

Summary

In the Gilded Cage scenario, Korea in 2045 is socially cohesive and well governed but technologically dependent. Having missed the window for developing core original technologies, it chose to maximise its world-class manufacturing capability and serves as a key production base for a US-led technology alliance. Advanced AI chips designed by American firms and biopharmaceuticals developed by European companies are mass-produced in Korean smart factories. The economy is stable and unemployment low, but much of the value added flows to foreign owners of the underlying technologies, leaving Korea in the middle of the value chain. Signals of this path include stagnant global shares of core patents, a persistent technology trade deficit and growing foreign dominance of digital platforms and AI services.