Signal Old-age dependency ratios in Korea and Japan are projected to approach 80 by 2050

Summary

The report argues that the core of the population crisis through 2050 lies less in total size than in the composition and distribution of the population. As inflows of young people fall rapidly and older people live longer, the demographic balance breaks down and the effects spread across the economy and society. The old-age dependency ratio, the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age, stood at 8.9 in Japan and 5.3 in Korea around 1960, which gave both countries a demographic premium during economic take-off. The ratio began to rise steeply in Japan in the 1990s and in Korea in the 2010s, as each entered the aged-society stage. Japan's ratio now exceeds 50 and Korea's exceeds 20, but because Korea's is climbing so fast, both are projected to approach 80 by 2050.