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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Signal China's expanding critical mineral export controls culminate in a Chinese FDPR

Summary

China has used its dominance in critical minerals, the foundation of economic security, as a lever against the US under its 2020 Export Control Law and dual-use export regulations. It began controlling gallium and germanium in August 2023, graphite in October 2023 and antimony in September 2024. In February 2025 it designated tungsten, bismuth, tellurium, molybdenum and indium as dual-use export items, and in April 2025 it added seven rare earths to the list. In October 2025 the commerce ministry required specified overseas exporters to obtain prior approval before re-exporting products that contain Chinese rare earths worth at least 0.1 percent of value or that were made with Chinese rare earth technology. The report describes this as a Chinese version of the US Foreign Direct Product Rule.

Classification

Region menusGlobal
Occurrencescope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:CN
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-09-30)
Published2026-02
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Part of trends 2

Directly linked issues 1

Relation types: direct_urgent · supports

Public id: fm-90feecd16e8f