Trend Routine climate disasters and hyper-uncertainty outpace experience-based disaster management

Summary

The report describes an era in which climate disasters become routine and hyper-uncertainty sets in. Global warming is producing torrential rain, drought and heatwaves at frequencies beyond past norms. Disaster management systems that depend on statistics from past experience are therefore reaching their limits. Unpredictable black swan disasters, such as a data centre fire, the spread of infectious disease and social catastrophes, are appearing alongside compound disasters with many interacting causes. Such events are described as threatening both lives and national systems. The report responds by calling for a shift from uniform central guidelines toward regional response systems and bold infrastructure investment for climate adaptation.