Trend Doubts over dollar hegemony and a gradually rising global role for the renminbi

Summary

Falling dollar shares in foreign reserves, the risk that the dollar is used as a weapon and rising US debt have revived debate about weaker dollar hegemony and de-dollarisation. China is using renminbi internationalisation, its CIPS payment network, yuan-denominated oil trade and new development banks to widen its currency's reach. The report expects global renminbi use to grow gradually as the dollar weakens, the yuan appreciates and China opens its capital markets. It nevertheless judges that a genuinely multipolar currency system is unlikely to emerge. Although monetary rivalry draws less attention than technology or supply chains, the authors call it an essential axis of long-run hegemonic competition, with financial decoupling and capital-market opening as issues to watch.