Trend Asymmetric US, EU and China policies expose technology-intensive exporters to layered risks

Summary

In the global trade environment, the essay expects 2026 to be an unstable period in which US, EU and Chinese policies move asymmetrically and cycles of isolation and connection repeat. Expanded US tariffs on China, a possible redesign of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act, deeper EU technology, data and environmental rules, and tighter US export controls and Wassenaar controls are all converging. Technology-intensive industries such as semiconductors, precision machinery, AI chips and secondary batteries face supply-chain, export-control, tariff and standards risks at the same time. Exporters of core technologies are advised to move supply-chain strategy from lowest-cost production to resilience with multi-country bases and dual sourcing. They should also build regulatory intelligence and shift global strategy from expansion toward defence and restructuring through localisation.