Trend Real estate and private debt recalibrate toward 25-year GDP ratios, helped by inflation
Summary
MGI reports that most corporate and household debt and real estate moved closer to their 25-year averages relative to GDP, that inflation assisted this normalisation, that values nonetheless remain well above pre-2000 levels, and that the ratio of productive assets to GDP held steady amid flat investment.
Classification
Main topicMacroeconomy & Finance
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=3;section=At a glance 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=15;section=Is the balance sheet 'in balance?' / Real estate 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 5
- SignalAustralia was the exception as real estate corrected nearly everywhere in 2025
- SignalCorporate debt sits at or below 25-year averages in much of the world; Ireland cut 21 points
- SignalCurrency and deposits fell from pandemic peaks but remain above pre-crisis levels
- SignalHousehold debt is back to early-2000s levels in the US and Europe
- SignalPer capita household wealth grew in most countries but lagged GDP
Part of issues 1
- IssueHousehold deleveraging does not remove the risk if debt moves to other sectors1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-ba33f1b05518