Trend Real estate and private debt recalibrate toward 25-year GDP ratios, helped by inflation

Summary

MGI observes that across most economies, household and corporate debt and real estate drifted back toward their 25-year averages relative to GDP in 2025. Inflation did part of the work, though values are still far above the levels typical before 2000. Household real estate relative to GDP peaked in most places during the pandemic and has been easing since, and in the eurozone and China it has fallen back to where it stood two decades ago. Even so, property across major economies remains pricier relative to income than it typically was in the closing decades of the twentieth century. Meanwhile the stock of productive assets held steady relative to GDP, since investment was flat.