Signal 78 countries fight beyond their borders as peace agreements become rare
Summary
This signal shows how widely states are drawn into wars outside their own territory and how rarely those wars end in negotiated settlements. UNDP reports that 78 countries, or 40% of UN member states, are now engaged in conflicts beyond their borders. Over the same long horizon, peace agreements have become far less common as a way of ending wars. Just 4% of conflicts in the 2010s concluded with such an agreement, compared with 23% in the 1970s. Together these figures suggest conflicts are becoming more internationalised and harder to close. UNDP links this to violence that escapes traditional peace architectures and raises the risk of deterioration in fragile settings.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Secondary topicsDemocracy & Governance
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-25)
Published2026-02
Last updated2026-09-30 12:56 KST
Evidence 1
- The landscape of development: UNDP trends update 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Strategy & Futures Team, Executive Office page=7;section=Theme 2: Conflict cascades 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-25
Part of trends 0
No objects.
Directly linked issues 1
- IssueConflict cascades1 trends · 6 signals
Relation types: direct_urgent
Public id: fm-c0187dc68f08
