Issue Conflict cascades
Summary
Violence is at record levels and increasingly falls below the threshold of declared war - protests, coups, proxy action, organised crime, cyber and information operations - which makes it harder to define, contain or resolve inside borders or existing peace architecture.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-25)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 1
- The landscape of development: UNDP trends update 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Strategy & Futures Team, Executive Office page=7;section=Theme 2: Conflict cascades 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-25
Constituent trends 1
- TrendRace for scarce resources0 signals
Directly linked signals 6
- Signal78 countries fight beyond their borders as peace agreements become rare
- SignalCivilians the majority of deaths in 14 conflicts; one in six people exposed
- SignalFifty-nine active state-based conflicts, the most since 1945
- SignalNon-state groups conducting drone attacks rise from 6 to 91
- SignalPrivate military actors taking strategic roles
- SignalViolence costs $20 trillion a year with high claimed returns to prevention
Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent
Public id: fm-f88a0627ca7c