Issue Watch point: swings in resource value, including from manipulation, move power unpredictably

Summary

This issue is the first watch point in the report's story about smaller states gaining influence through strategic resources. The strategic value of minerals, manufacturing, capital and talent is not fixed. It may fluctuate because of market forces or because influential players manipulate markets. Such movements could shift global power dynamics in unexpected ways. States whose new influence rests on a particular resource could therefore see it rise or fall quickly. The watch point warns that resource-based power is volatile and not easily planned for.