Trend The balance sheet detaches further from the real economy, driven by the US and China
Summary
MGI's headline trend: the gap between the balance sheet and the underlying economy widened again in 2025, and the widening came mostly from the two largest economies - US equity rising to 2.4 times corporate net assets on a doubled profit share of GDP, and Chinese corporate debt reaching 80 percent of real assets against 50 percent globally.
Classification
Main topicMacroeconomy & Finance
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=3;section=At a glance 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
- The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence McKinsey Global Institute page=5;section=Introduction 2026-07 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 4
- SignalChina's total-economy wealth nearly equals that of the US once all sectors are counted
- SignalChinese corporate debt is double the global average and 80% of corporate real assets
- SignalJapan, the UK, China, and France hold currency and deposits above twice GDP
- SignalThe 2025 global picture was driven by the United States and China
Part of issues 3
- IssueAn elevated balance sheet unwinds through productivity, inflation, a reset, or not at all3 trends · 1 signals
- IssueHousehold wealth is partly a claim of citizens on themselves as taxpayers and customers1 trends · 2 signals
- IssueRising asset values pull capital toward repurchases rather than productive investment1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-faaae37e3888