Trend Concentration of young people in Tokyo and Seoul drives local extinction
Summary
Korea and Japan face similar demographic crises of ultra-low fertility, ageing and population decline as a result of compressed modernization, and local extinction has emerged as a serious social problem. Local extinction goes beyond simple population loss and threatens the very survival of local governments, and the concentration of young people in metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Seoul is identified as its cause. As young people crowd into cities, fertility in the regions becomes markedly lower than in cities and the outflow of youth from ageing regions leaves them at risk of disappearing. Both countries tried to revitalize their regions after the high-growth era with little success, and since the 2000s even the remaining local youth have been moving to the Tokyo and Seoul areas. The report distinguishes the past problem of regional contraction from today's problem of regional disappearance, as a growing number of localities can no longer keep the minimum population needed to function as self-governing units.
Classification
Evidence 1
- 대외경제정책연구원(KIEP) 한·일 국교정상화 60년과 미래비전 2050 대외경제정책연구원(KIEP) no link — bibliographic entry pp. 9, 230, 231, 232 2025-08-29 accessed 2026-09-30
Observed signals 5
- SignalJapan's municipalities fell from 3,200 to under 1,720 in the 2000 to 2006 mergers
- SignalJapanese municipalities at risk of extinction fell from 896 to 744 between the 2014 and 2024 assessments
- SignalKorean audit projects most local governments at high risk of extinction by 2067
- SignalOnly eight of Japan's 47 prefectures grew during the high-growth era as Tokyo kept drawing people
- SignalOnly the Seoul capital region kept growing in Korea after the high-growth era
Part of issues 1
- IssueJoint Korea-Japan responses to local extinction through policy, youth and digital cooperation2 trends · 2 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-0c0ba1da142a
