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2026-10-08
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The Futures

Trend Concentration of young people in Tokyo and Seoul drives local extinction

Summary

Korea and Japan face similar demographic crises of ultra-low fertility, ageing and population decline as a result of compressed modernization, and local extinction has emerged as a serious social problem. Local extinction goes beyond simple population loss and threatens the very survival of local governments, and the concentration of young people in metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Seoul is identified as its cause. As young people crowd into cities, fertility in the regions becomes markedly lower than in cities and the outflow of youth from ageing regions leaves them at risk of disappearing. Both countries tried to revitalize their regions after the high-growth era with little success, and since the 2000s even the remaining local youth have been moving to the Tokyo and Seoul areas. The report distinguishes the past problem of regional contraction from today's problem of regional disappearance, as a growing number of localities can no longer keep the minimum population needed to function as self-governing units.

Classification

Region menusEast Asia Korea
Impactscope:country · geo_region:east_asia · country:JP · country:KR
Time horizon11-30 years (2026-09-30)
Published2025-08-29
Last updated2026-09-30 17:59 KST

Evidence 1

Observed signals 5

Part of issues 1

Relation types: constitutes · supports

Public id: fm-0c0ba1da142a