Issue Multilateralism off the rails
Summary
Great-power rivalry and resource anxiety are driving states inward while defence budgets rise and OECD aid falls; member states want UN reform without agreeing what it is, so cooperation has flatlined even though publics still want it.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-25)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 1
- The landscape of development: UNDP trends update 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Strategy & Futures Team, Executive Office page=6;section=Theme 1: Multilateralism off the rails 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-25
Constituent trends 1
- TrendConflicts proliferating and intensifying0 signals
Directly linked signals 6
- Signal55% back international cooperation even at national cost as UN favourability slips
- SignalCooperation continues overall but peace and security cooperation keeps falling
- SignalMilitary spending up 9.4% in a year, 2.5% of global GDP
- SignalOfficial development assistance falls to $212.1bn with a further drop projected
- SignalThirty-four countries exert substantial influence abroad, up from six
- SignalTwo new coalitions form around global governance and Charter renewal
Relation types: constitutes · direct_urgent
Public id: fm-1a1441a0aae7