Trend Conflicts proliferating and intensifying
Summary
This trend describes armed conflict spreading and becoming more intense around the world. Data from the Uppsala University Conflict Data Program show the number of armed conflicts at its highest level since records began in 1975. The count covers state-based conflicts, fighting between non-state groups and one-sided violence against civilians. It sits within a turbulent global setting in which the rules-based order is weakening and states pursue national interests in an increasingly multipolar world. The report stresses that diplomacy and conflict prevention are becoming more important as tensions heighten uncertainty for international relations and markets. For Finland and the EU, this also points to a need to strengthen defence capabilities.
Classification
Evidence 2
- Megatrends 2026: Towards a new social contract Sitra (the Finnish Innovation Fund) page=39;section=Data: Figure 7 2026-01 accessed 2026-07-25
- The landscape of development: UNDP trends update 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Strategy & Futures Team, Executive Office page=6;section=Theme 1: Multilateralism off the rails 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-25
Observed signals 7
- Signal2026 Iran War — US-Israel Strike Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Ceasefire Fragile
- SignalFrance Sending Forces To Help Defend Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Oil Facilities
- SignalSudan: RSF committed crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing in el-Fasher (Amnesty)
- SignalUS threatens Iranian infrastructure over Strait of Hormuz attacks; Ukraine to export drones to US
- SignalUS working on 'deconfliction mechanism' between Turkey, Syria and Israel, says Barrack
- SignalUS–Iran conflict escalates: naval blockade reinstated, new sanctions, ICC targeted
- SignalUkraine-Russia: Russian missile/drone strikes kill 17 in Kyiv; possible first Ukrainian ballistic missile combat use
Part of issues 1
- IssueMultilateralism off the rails1 trends · 6 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-9a78f79e8d44
