Issue Arctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation

Summary

For three decades the Arctic Council gave the far north a multilateral framework for cooperation. EY argues that this order is now breaking down as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, climate change and weakening multilateralism turn the region into an arena of direct rivalry. Russia remains the dominant Arctic power, but sanctions have isolated it and pushed it toward closer work with China. China calls itself a near-Arctic state and promotes a Polar Silk Road, while the United States sees these moves as a threat and is trying to catch up. EY also flags risks to Indigenous communities from defence activity and suggests that the current transition, before positions harden, may be the best chance to set precautionary governance.