Trend Global resource rush
Summary
Three domains at Earth's edges open at once - deep earth and deep sea, the Arctic, and Earth orbit - as technology, geopolitics and climate change converge, creating competition for both tangible resources and intangible ones such as shipping routes and orbital slots.
Classification
Main topicResources, Food & Water
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-25)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 1
- Futures Reimagined: EY Megatrends 2026 and beyond EY (Ernst & Young Global Limited) page=43;section=Megatrend 6: Global resource rush 2026 accessed 2026-07-25
Observed signals 8
- Signal140 million debris pieces and rising Kessler Syndrome risk
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- SignalActive satellites quadruple to 13,000 with one operator holding 80%
- SignalArctic warming four times faster; shipping mileage up 108% in a decade
- SignalAt least 20 countries hold military satellites with attribution difficult
- SignalClarion-Clipperton nodules hold more critical metals than terrestrial reserves
- SignalPermafrost holds 2.5 times atmospheric carbon while shipping may darken ice
- SignalSpace economy projected to reach $1 trillion by 2032, two-thirds private
Part of issues 6
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGovernment: sequencing frontier access faster than frameworks adapt1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInfrastructure: national strategies lock in access for decades1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrbital governance built for a world that no longer exists1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSeabed mining governance splits between pause and unilateral permitting1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology: frontier constraints become technology constraints1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-68f1c43ccd30