Trend Global resource rush
Summary
EY describes three frontiers at Earth's extremes of depth, distance and altitude that are opening to resource extraction and geopolitical rivalry at the same time. The deep earth and deep sea hold large reserves of critical minerals, the Arctic offers strategic minerals, energy and increasingly valuable shipping lanes, and Earth orbit is treated as a limited resource for observation, communications, research and defence. Technology, geopolitics and climate change are opening these domains together, while digitalisation and the clean energy transition push mineral demand beyond what current sources can supply. Governments increasingly treat resource supply as a matter of national security. For workers this means new jobs in space operations, Arctic logistics and autonomous mining, and for leaders it means acting in places where governance is incomplete and the rules are still being written.
Classification
Evidence 1
- Futures Reimagined: EY Megatrends 2026 and beyond EY (Ernst & Young Global Limited) page=43;section=Megatrend 6: Global resource rush 2026 accessed 2026-07-25
Observed signals 8
- Signal140 million debris pieces and rising Kessler Syndrome risk
- SignalA $666 billion circumpolar economy with 13% of undiscovered oil
- SignalActive satellites quadruple to 13,000 with one operator holding 80%
- SignalArctic warming four times faster; shipping mileage up 108% in a decade
- SignalAt least 20 countries hold military satellites with attribution difficult
- SignalClarion-Clipperton nodules hold more critical metals than terrestrial reserves
- SignalPermafrost holds 2.5 times atmospheric carbon while shipping may darken ice
- SignalSpace economy projected to reach $1 trillion by 2032, two-thirds private
Part of issues 6
- IssueArctic governance fractures as competition replaces cooperation1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueGovernment: sequencing frontier access faster than frameworks adapt1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueInfrastructure: national strategies lock in access for decades1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrbital governance built for a world that no longer exists1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueSeabed mining governance splits between pause and unilateral permitting1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueTechnology: frontier constraints become technology constraints1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-68f1c43ccd30
