Issue Scenario: repeated small deals rather than a US-China grand bargain

Summary

The report expects Washington and Beijing to keep managing their relationship through repeated partial agreements in areas each needs, rather than a comprehensive grand bargain. Analysts it cites see possible trade-offs, such as large Chinese purchases of US farm goods, energy and Boeing aircraft in exchange for eased investment limits or paused technology controls. Yet a hawkish Trump team, the illiberal turn in US policy and China's confidence in its own resilience make a sweeping deal increasingly unlikely. Beijing is likely to demand deep tariff cuts as the basic condition of any agreement and will not accept a one-sided deal, while a larger bargain would require unilateral US concessions on regional security. With US midterm elections due in November 2026, Washington may nonetheless seek negotiations to ease economic uncertainty.