Trend Story 1: technology companies and their owners contest the primacy of states
Summary
The first story of change makes large technology firms a category of international actor in their own right. Because they hold technologies, consumer products, services, data and digital infrastructure at global scale, and because their control of that infrastructure is what economic and strategic power now runs on, the report treats them and their owners as players in arenas that used to belong to states.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon4-10 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=6;section=1 New players 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=6;section=1 New players 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 4
- SignalInternational organizations invite firms to give policy advice and states appoint tech ambassadors
- SignalNamed firms supported Ukraine after the 2022 invasion on their own initiative
- SignalSeafloor cables carry over 95% of international internet traffic and are exposed to sabotage
- SignalSubmarine cables, cloud data centres and low orbit satellites are named as privately held
Part of issues 5
- IssueHow to hold technology firms accountable and fit them into global governance is unsettled1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy area 1: international relations must absorb new actors, new arenas and new entities4 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePolicy area 2: security gains from connection are inseparable from new exposure2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueWatch point: a firm or its owner takes unilateral diplomatic or military action1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-2ea88d6f9831