Trend Story 1: technology companies and their owners contest the primacy of states
Summary
The first of the report's six stories of change holds that technology companies and their leaders are challenging the primacy of states as geopolitical actors. Large firms with global operations spanning technologies, consumer products, services, data and digital infrastructure represent a new kind of international actor. They and their billionaire chief executives now act in arenas once reserved for states, such as outer space. The report traces their rising influence to control over critical infrastructure and systems that economic and strategic power depend on. Unlike traditional defence contractors, these firms rely less on government contracts and may not put state concerns first. Questions about how to hold them accountable and fit them into global governance remain open.
Classification
Evidence 2
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=6;section=1 New players 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
- Exploring Change in Geotechnomics Policy Horizons Canada page=6;section=1 New players 2025 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 4
- SignalInternational organizations invite firms to give policy advice and states appoint tech ambassadors
- SignalNamed firms supported Ukraine after the 2022 invasion on their own initiative
- SignalSeafloor cables carry over 95% of international internet traffic and are exposed to sabotage
- SignalSubmarine cables, cloud data centres and low orbit satellites are named as privately held
Part of issues 5
- IssueHow to hold technology firms accountable and fit them into global governance is unsettled1 trends · 0 signals
- IssuePolicy area 1: international relations must absorb new actors, new arenas and new entities4 trends · 2 signals
- IssuePolicy area 2: security gains from connection are inseparable from new exposure2 trends · 2 signals
- IssueWatch point: a firm or its owner takes unilateral diplomatic or military action1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueWatch point: infrastructure owners withhold essential services as bargaining leverage1 trends · 0 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-2ea88d6f9831
