Issue 2050 regional order scenario 3: A pluralistic regional order led by middle powers

Summary

The third scenario sees middle powers forming a pluralistic regional order while geopolitical competition among the United States, China and Russia continues. Middle powers would prevent great-power military rivalry from sliding into war, widen the scope of cooperation and strengthen multilateral institutional cooperation. Korea and Japan could exercise important leadership in East Asian security cooperation and help avert conflict by reinforcing multilateral bodies. The report judges that this path offers the greatest potential for Korea-Japan cooperation, because every East Asian state fears militarized US-China rivalry and an unstable world order. If the two democratic middle powers, already deepening ties with Australia, India and ASEAN, could lead in shaping an order that eases the rivalry, it would contribute greatly to regional stability.