Trend Shift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design
Summary
McKinsey's fourth shift holds that geopolitical tension and fragmented regulation will keep disrupting industries through 2026, with global value chains buffeted by trade conflict, tariffs, political polarization, and declining trust in collaboration.
Classification
Main topicGeopolitics & Security
Region menusGlobal
Impactscope:global
Time horizon0-3 years (2026-07-26)
Last updated2026-07-29 04:49:52
Evidence 2
- The State of Organizations 2026 McKinsey & Company page=6;section=Nine shifts transforming organizations / Economic disruption 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-26
- The State of Organizations 2026 McKinsey & Company page=30;section=Economic disruption: Finding value in a new geopolitical context 2026-02 accessed 2026-07-26
Observed signals 12
- Signal17% have no method to assess geopolitical impact and only 26% plan scenarios quarterly
- Signal43% of executives say they divested too late or failed to divest
- Signal72% of leaders say geopolitical uncertainty is affecting their organizations
- SignalAmong the less affected, a third credit a diversified footprint
- SignalFast reallocators were 2.2 times more likely to outperform on shareholder returns
- SignalLeaders in Saudi Arabia and Japan report the least geopolitical impact
- SignalMore confident organizations reallocate budget and talent enterprise-wide more often
- SignalNorth America became tonies' largest market at about half of revenue in 2025
- SignalOrganizations with wider geographic spread report higher geopolitical exposure
- SignalProcess redesign (34%) and talent strategy (32%) are the main geopolitical reorganization levers
- SignalSamsung lifted foundry sales after widening its supplier base beyond Asia
- Signaltonies opened a Vietnam plant one day before US tariffs on Chinese goods
Part of issues 2
- IssueGeopolitical distance becomes an input to organizational design1 trends · 0 signals
- IssueOrganizational rigidity, not external shocks, limits geopolitical response speed1 trends · 4 signals
Relation types: constitutes · supports
Public id: fm-7a24605d9b31