Trend Shift 4: geopolitical fragmentation reshapes value chains and organizational design

Summary

McKinsey's fourth organizational shift describes how rising geopolitical tension and a patchwork of regulations are disrupting industries, with effects expected to intensify through 2026. Trade disputes, tariffs, political polarization, and eroding trust in cooperation are all putting pressure on global value chains. Almost three in four survey respondents said geopolitical uncertainty has had a notable impact on their organizations. As trade moves toward nearby partners, the report argues that firms must build resilient structures and balance global scale against regional adaptability. It calls for a deep flexibility that lets organizations bounce forward rather than merely recover. Digital platforms, data analytics, and AI are presented as tools that help anticipate risks, shift resources, and keep operations agile.